Afternoon all,
As the ceaseless transfer rumours continue regarding a host of names each of which is usually just repackaged as an exclusive or submitted as new news, we at GoonerVerse are going to focus on reality, the harsh reality of Champions League qualification. Despite a recent 7 match winning streak, our chances are just as good or bad, depending on which way you look at it, as the clubs around us.
Today I will boldly and perhaps foolishly try and assess our chances from here on in. I will look at where we are compared to that of our rivals and where we are likely to go from here. Of course this is all hypothetical and my predictions could be as far off as Andy Carroll is from making the team of the year.
Where we stand
POS | CLUB | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | GF | GA | GD | Points |
1 | Manchester United | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 76 |
2 | Manchester City | 31 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 75 | 25 | 50 | 71 |
3 | Arsenal | 31 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 58 |
4 | Tottenham | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 56 | 36 | 20 | 58 |
5 | Chelsea | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 36 | 17 | 53 |
6 | Newcastle United | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 53 |
As you all probably already know, Arsenal sit in third which on the surface would suggest that we should be favourites to finish in the top four. However with 6th placed Newcastle only 5 points behind, there is no room to take anything for granted. In fairness this is something Arsene Wenger has stressed nearly every pre-match and post-match interview since January. It would only take one slip up to put Chelsea or Newcastle in a position to take advantage; especially given we are yet to play Chelsea.
A number of things are striking looking at that table from an Arsenal perspective. We have a team that has won more games than all our rivals; Tottenham, Chelsea and Newcastle yet we have also lost more as well. All the other teams mentioned have drawn far more games and I suppose one does get that feeling when watching Arsenal. We are either going to win or lose, there seems to be no middle ground.
Also interesting to note is that despite Tottenham apparently being the most adventurous team to grace the planet they have scored some 6 goals less than us in what many consider to be our poorest season. Interesting.
Either way, the bottom line is that, as you can see only one goal separates us from our noisy neighbours and this is something that can change very quickly this weekend when we face Manchester City.
Home and Away Form
One thing that will undoubtedly have a huge influence in the race for the Champions League spots is where the fixtures take place and what the form of each team is home and away. One would assume that most teams are better home than away but that is not always the case. It is also important to look at home and away form, given how some sides are better travellers than others which may prove crucial in the last few weeks.
Home
POS | CLUB | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | GF | GA | GD | P | PPG |
1 | Arsenal | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 22 | 35 | 2.33 |
2 | Tottenham | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 36 | 2.25 |
3 | Chelsea | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 30 | 2.00 |
4* | Newcastle | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 32 | 2.00 |
*4th due to goal difference.
As you can see from the above, Tottenham have the best home form but as Arsenal have played one game less they are slightly more reliant on home games for points with them achieving 2.3 points per home game as opposed to 2.25. Not much in it but clearly both Arsenal and Tottenham have had more success at home than both Chelsea and Newcastle who average 2 points per game each.
What struck me here though was looking at the goals conceded. Arsenal have widely been criticised for their defensive abilities this season but have only conceded 12 goals in 15 games which represents a measly 0.8 goals conceded a game. This is second only to Manchester City in the whole league.
Away
POS | CLUB | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | GF | GA | GD | P | PPG |
1 | Tottenham | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 1.47 |
2 | Chelsea | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 23 | 1.44 |
3 | Arsenal | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 23 | 1.44 |
4 | Newcastle | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 21 | 1.40 |
Now here is where it gets interesting, whilst the home games were close there was a clear gap between Arsenal and Tottenham and Chelsea and Newcastle. This time it is only a gap of 0.07 between the best away team Tottenham and the worst of the four, Newcastle. What is clear is that all four teams have been poor away from home this season and have lost about as many games as they have won.
Looking at that then you would say Arsenal and Chelsea have a potentially better chance based on these statistics as they have one more home game, 4 each, than both Tottenham and Newcastle who have 3 each.
Remaining Fixtures
Arsenal | Pred | Spurs | Pred | Chelsea | Pred | Newcastle | Pred |
Man City (H) | 0 | Sunderland (A) | 1 | Wigan (H) | 3 | Swansea (A) | 1 |
Wolves (A) | 3 | Norwich (H) | 3 | Fulham (A) | 1 | Bolton (H) | 3 |
Wigan (H) | 3 | QPR (A) | 3 | Arsenal (A) | 1 | Stoke (H) | 3 |
Chelsea (H) | 1 | Blackburn (H) | 3 | QPR (H) | 3 | Wigan (A) | 3 |
Stoke (A) | 1 | Bolton (A) | 3 | Newcastle (H) | 3 | Chelsea (A) | 0 |
Norwich (H) | 3 | Aston Villa (A) | 3 | Liverpool (A) | 1 | Man City (H) | 0 |
West Brom (A) | 3 | Fulham (H) | 3 | Blackburn (H) | 3 | Everton (A) | 1 |
Total | 14 | 19 | 15 | 11 |
This is where it gets very hypothetical and to be honest mostly guesswork. Educated estimates, yes, but guesswork none the less. I have gone for what is the likely result in my opinion taking into consideration who was home and away in each of the matches.
Take my Predictions with a grain of salt. I was seriously considering taking them out as they give no actual bearing on what will happen, they are only meant to highlight, that on paper this is what would most likely happen.
These “predictions” would see the table looking like this:
POS | CLUB | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Points |
3 | Tottenham | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 77 |
4 | Arsenal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72 |
5 | Chelsea | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 68 |
6 | Newcastle United | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 64 |
Of course that is only as fanciful as all the games of fantasy transfers that everyone is playing right now. There is far more to the story than meets the eye. It is not just who is likely to win on paper, in fact, this far in advance it counts for nothing. There are lots of things that can change and influence the results of the next 7 matches including but not limited to; injuries and suspensions, form, circumstance and of course as we all know anything can happen in a football match.
Part two will look at each team’s run-in, in a more personalised way taking into account some of the above factors, so make sure you tune in tomorrow for some detailed analysis.
In other news though, as I have mentioned in the last few posts, that Jack Wilshere is fast approaching a return to first team action. This was confirmed when Arseblog News declared that Jack Wilshere is set to play in a behind closed doors match against Birmingham reserves this morning/afternoon. Update - it turns out that Wilshere did not take part in the match.
I hope it all goes well as he may well be a contributing factor in deciding the remaining Champions League places. Remember to check back tomorrow for a detailed look into each teams chances looking past just the numbers and the probability of it all.
Until tomorrow,
GoonerVerse.
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